Winnipeg, MB, January 15, 2014 (CNS Canada), Jan 15, 2014 (Menafn - Commodity News Service Canada, Inc. via COMTEX) --The Canadian...
Read More >>> MENAFN.COMWednesday, January 15, 2014
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Wheat futures climb following Egyptian demand
The General Authority for Special Commodities of Egypt said on Saturday that it is moving forward with the acquisition of 55,000 metric tons of soft red...
Read More >>> Daniels TradingTuesday, May 28, 2013
Cocoa fell to a one-week low in London on speculation rainfall
Cocoa fell to a one-week low in London on speculation rainfall in top grower Ivory Coast will boost prospects for the crop. Sugar advanced and coffee slid.
Growing areas in West Africa, the main growing region, got rain last week, with the heaviest amounts falling over southwestern Cameroon and southern Ivory Coast, MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland, said in a report e-mailed on May 21. Ivory Coast is harvesting the smaller of two annual crops known as the mid-crop. Wet weather at this time of the year usually favors the development of the next crop.
“More rain in the Ivory Coast was seen as beneficial for the mid-crop there,” Arthur Liming, a futures specialist at Citigroup Inc. in Chicago, said in a report e-mailed yesterday.
Cocoa for delivery in July slid 0.5 percent to 1,529 pounds ($2,310) a metric ton by 11:01 a.m. on NYSE Liffe in London. The price fell to as low as 1,525 pounds, the lowest since May 17. Cocoa for July delivery dropped 0.9 percent to $2,263 a ton on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.
July cocoa yesterday in New York fell below its recent trading range, Liming said.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-05-24/cocoa-falls-to-one-week-low-on-ivory-coast-rains-sugar-advances
Coffee extends losses, sugar strengthens
Business Recorder (blog) Arabica coffee futures on ICE extended losses to the lowest in more than three years on Friday, as computer-based traders continued to sell, while raw sugar inched higher following the previous session's turnaround up from the lowest since 2010. Cocoa ... |
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/coffee-prices-hit-3-12-year-low-20130524-00502
Monday, March 30, 2009
CERA: Low Oil Prices Putting Supply Growth at Risk
CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Mar 27, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) ----The collapse in oil prices could end up cutting the growth in future oil supply in half from what would have been anticipated during the high price period, according to a new study from Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA: undefined, undefined, undefined%), an IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS: 42.05, 0, 0%) company. The Long Aftershock concludes that about 7.6 million barrels per day (mbd) out of total potential future net growth of 14.5 mbd from 2009 to 2014 are "at risk."
"The inventory of potential new oilfield developments, including fields that could be developed and brought online during the next five years, remains adequate to meet likely demand in the medium- to long-term," says CERA Senior Director Peter M. Jackson, an author of the report. "This, however, depends on sufficient and timely investment."
The steep decline in oil prices has, so far, not been matched by an equal decline in the cost of developing new oil fields or in fiscal terms. This means the economics of a significant share of potential future oil supply growth have deteriorated to the point where it risks "being slowed down, postponed, or cancelled altogether. Slower growth in oil production capacity over the next five years could lead to the next period of rising oil prices, but much depends on the recovery of world oil demand - which CERA predicts could fall as much as 2.3 mbd in 2008 and 2009 combined - and the reaction of the oil industry and government policies.
"Investment decisions are rooted in expectations about future value, and while long-term oil price expectations are critical, so are upstream development costs," added Jackson. "The oil price needed to justify investment will decline as the cost base falls, but this readjustment may take time to unfold, and lower costs will not necessarily equate with increasing activity levels."
The potential reduction in capacity represents a potentially powerful and long-lasting aftershock following the oil price collapse that began in 2008. Using proprietary databases from CERA and IHS, the report analyzes how global oil supply could be reshaped by lower oil prices and the credit crisis.
"Seven consecutive years of rising oil prices - unprecedented in the history of the oil industry - have come crashing down, thus burying the notion that the commodity price cycle was a historical relic," the report says. "Instead, old truths have been reaffirmed. Sustained rising oil prices do, eventually, affect demand trends. One-way bets on oil prices eventually go awry."
The report adds that the "commodity price cycle" is affected "by global economy, geopolitics, and technology. The question today is, as always, 'When will the next swing in oil price occur?'"
Economic growth and oil demand will be key factors that also affect future supply. After declining in 2008 and 2009, CERA expects oil demand to pick up in 2010. However, "If oil demand does not begin to recover next year, the oil market could face a large surplus of production capacity for the next several years - even if growth in production capacity slows significantly," said James Burkhard, CERA managing director and an author of the report.
CERA's analysis finds that, with the fall in oil prices, the pace at which new supply will grow and come onstream is already slowing. Given the global economic climate, short-term corporate cash flow problems will lead to project deferrals throughout the global industry, and financial pressures could spark a possible wave of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. Oil-exploring countries face a large reduction in revenue compared with 2008 as well, and current indications are that as many as 35 new projects in OPEC countries will be delayed significantly.
The Long Aftershock concludes that if all "at risk" supply fails to materialize, world oil production capacity just five years from now could be 101.4 mbd, 7.6 mbd below the pre-collapse CERA projection of 109 mbd for 2014. The report identifies the most likely areas for postponements as new heavy oil and deep water projects and countries with difficult fiscal regimes, as well as a reduction in the investment in new biofuel, gas-to-liquid and coal-to-liquid projects, and high cost discretionary "rank wildcat exploration." Although it will take time for these changes to have an impact on total global oil supply, that impact could prove to be significant.
CERA Chairman and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power Daniel Yergin added, "Future demand is particularly uncertain today because of the impact of high prices on consumers, the depth of the recession, the shifts in the automobile industry, and the introduction of new energy and climate change policies."
But, the report says, if demand growth is eventually far greater than expected, especially in emerging markets, and current, prolonged low oil prices persist and productive capacity growth stalls even more than expected, a new period of tight supply and strongly rising oil prices could mark the next turn in the oil cycle.
To learn more about The Long Aftershock, please visit www.cera.com or email info@cera.com.
CERA is an IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS: 42.05, 0, 0%) company.
About CERA (www.cera.com)
Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA: undefined, undefined, undefined%), an IHS company, is a leading advisor to energy companies, consumers, financial institutions, technology providers, and governments. CERA (www.cera.com) delivers strategic knowledge and independent analysis on energy markets, geopolitics, industry trends, and strategy. CERA is based in Cambridge, Mass., and has offices in Bangkok, Beijing, Calgary, Dubai, Johannesburg, Mexico City, Moscow, Mumbai, Oslo, Paris, Rio de Janeiro, San Francisco, Tokyo, and Washington, DC.
About IHS (www.ihs.com)
IHS (NYSE: IHS: 42.05, 0, 0%) is a leading global source of critical information and insight, dedicated to providing the most complete and trusted data and expertise. IHS product and service solutions span four areas of information that encompass the most important concerns facing global business today: Energy, Product Lifecycle, Security, and Environment. It serves customers ranging from governments and multinational companies to smaller companies and technical professionals in more than 180 countries. IHS is celebrating its 50th anniversary in 2009 and employs approximately 3,800 people in 20 countries.
IHS is a registered trademark of IHS Inc. CERA is a registered trademark of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. Copyright (C: 2.35, n.a., n.a.%)2009 IHS Inc. All rights reserved.
SOURCE: IHS Inc.
IHS
David Pendery, 303-397-2468
david.pendery@ihs.com
or
IHS Press Desk, 303-305-8021
press@ihs.com
Copyright Business Wire 2009
**********************************************************************
As of Monday, 03-23-2009 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend� Alert,
an automated pattern recognition system, indicated an UPTREND on
12-08-2008 for IHS @ $37.07.
For more information on SmarTrend, contact your market data
provider or go to www.mysmartrend.com
SmarTrend is a registered trademark of Comtex News Network, Inc.
Copyright � 2004-2009 Comtex News Network
"The inventory of potential new oilfield developments, including fields that could be developed and brought online during the next five years, remains adequate to meet likely demand in the medium- to long-term," says CERA Senior Director Peter M. Jackson, an author of the report. "This, however, depends on sufficient and timely investment."
The steep decline in oil prices has, so far, not been matched by an equal decline in the cost of developing new oil fields or in fiscal terms. This means the economics of a significant share of potential future oil supply growth have deteriorated to the point where it risks "being slowed down, postponed, or cancelled altogether. Slower growth in oil production capacity over the next five years could lead to the next period of rising oil prices, but much depends on the recovery of world oil demand - which CERA predicts could fall as much as 2.3 mbd in 2008 and 2009 combined - and the reaction of the oil industry and government policies.
"Investment decisions are rooted in expectations about future value, and while long-term oil price expectations are critical, so are upstream development costs," added Jackson. "The oil price needed to justify investment will decline as the cost base falls, but this readjustment may take time to unfold, and lower costs will not necessarily equate with increasing activity levels."
The potential reduction in capacity represents a potentially powerful and long-lasting aftershock following the oil price collapse that began in 2008. Using proprietary databases from CERA and IHS, the report analyzes how global oil supply could be reshaped by lower oil prices and the credit crisis.
"Seven consecutive years of rising oil prices - unprecedented in the history of the oil industry - have come crashing down, thus burying the notion that the commodity price cycle was a historical relic," the report says. "Instead, old truths have been reaffirmed. Sustained rising oil prices do, eventually, affect demand trends. One-way bets on oil prices eventually go awry."
The report adds that the "commodity price cycle" is affected "by global economy, geopolitics, and technology. The question today is, as always, 'When will the next swing in oil price occur?'"
Economic growth and oil demand will be key factors that also affect future supply. After declining in 2008 and 2009, CERA expects oil demand to pick up in 2010. However, "If oil demand does not begin to recover next year, the oil market could face a large surplus of production capacity for the next several years - even if growth in production capacity slows significantly," said James Burkhard, CERA managing director and an author of the report.
CERA's analysis finds that, with the fall in oil prices, the pace at which new supply will grow and come onstream is already slowing. Given the global economic climate, short-term corporate cash flow problems will lead to project deferrals throughout the global industry, and financial pressures could spark a possible wave of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. Oil-exploring countries face a large reduction in revenue compared with 2008 as well, and current indications are that as many as 35 new projects in OPEC countries will be delayed significantly.
The Long Aftershock concludes that if all "at risk" supply fails to materialize, world oil production capacity just five years from now could be 101.4 mbd, 7.6 mbd below the pre-collapse CERA projection of 109 mbd for 2014. The report identifies the most likely areas for postponements as new heavy oil and deep water projects and countries with difficult fiscal regimes, as well as a reduction in the investment in new biofuel, gas-to-liquid and coal-to-liquid projects, and high cost discretionary "rank wildcat exploration." Although it will take time for these changes to have an impact on total global oil supply, that impact could prove to be significant.
CERA Chairman and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power Daniel Yergin added, "Future demand is particularly uncertain today because of the impact of high prices on consumers, the depth of the recession, the shifts in the automobile industry, and the introduction of new energy and climate change policies."
But, the report says, if demand growth is eventually far greater than expected, especially in emerging markets, and current, prolonged low oil prices persist and productive capacity growth stalls even more than expected, a new period of tight supply and strongly rising oil prices could mark the next turn in the oil cycle.
To learn more about The Long Aftershock, please visit www.cera.com or email info@cera.com.
CERA is an IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS: 42.05, 0, 0%) company.
About CERA (www.cera.com)
Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA: undefined, undefined, undefined%), an IHS company, is a leading advisor to energy companies, consumers, financial institutions, technology providers, and governments. CERA (www.cera.com) delivers strategic knowledge and independent analysis on energy markets, geopolitics, industry trends, and strategy. CERA is based in Cambridge, Mass., and has offices in Bangkok, Beijing, Calgary, Dubai, Johannesburg, Mexico City, Moscow, Mumbai, Oslo, Paris, Rio de Janeiro, San Francisco, Tokyo, and Washington, DC.
About IHS (www.ihs.com)
IHS (NYSE: IHS: 42.05, 0, 0%) is a leading global source of critical information and insight, dedicated to providing the most complete and trusted data and expertise. IHS product and service solutions span four areas of information that encompass the most important concerns facing global business today: Energy, Product Lifecycle, Security, and Environment. It serves customers ranging from governments and multinational companies to smaller companies and technical professionals in more than 180 countries. IHS is celebrating its 50th anniversary in 2009 and employs approximately 3,800 people in 20 countries.
IHS is a registered trademark of IHS Inc. CERA is a registered trademark of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. Copyright (C: 2.35, n.a., n.a.%)2009 IHS Inc. All rights reserved.
SOURCE: IHS Inc.
IHS
David Pendery, 303-397-2468
david.pendery@ihs.com
or
IHS Press Desk, 303-305-8021
press@ihs.com
Copyright Business Wire 2009
**********************************************************************
As of Monday, 03-23-2009 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend� Alert,
an automated pattern recognition system, indicated an UPTREND on
12-08-2008 for IHS @ $37.07.
For more information on SmarTrend, contact your market data
provider or go to www.mysmartrend.com
SmarTrend is a registered trademark of Comtex News Network, Inc.
Copyright � 2004-2009 Comtex News Network
Oil
- The collapse in oil prices could end up cutting the growth in future oil supply in half from what would have been anticipated during the high price period, according to a new study from Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA: undefined, undefined, undefined%), an IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS: 42.05, 0, 0%) company.
- The Long Aftershock concludes that about 7.6 million barrels per day (mbd) out of total potential future net growth of 14.5 mbd from 2009 to 2014 are "at risk."
- There is little, if any, fundamental data that justifies the price increases over the last few weeks," said James Williams, an economist at energy research firm WTRG Economics On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for May delivery closed below $50 for the first time since March 18.
"Oil is trading lower today due to the shocking news out of the auto industry and the implications for demand if GM or Chrysler fall within the next 60 days," said Zachary Oxman of TrendMax Futures. "I think the market sees that this recession is nowhere near over."
- The Long Aftershock concludes that about 7.6 million barrels per day (mbd) out of total potential future net growth of 14.5 mbd from 2009 to 2014 are "at risk."
- There is little, if any, fundamental data that justifies the price increases over the last few weeks," said James Williams, an economist at energy research firm WTRG Economics On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for May delivery closed below $50 for the first time since March 18.
"Oil is trading lower today due to the shocking news out of the auto industry and the implications for demand if GM or Chrysler fall within the next 60 days," said Zachary Oxman of TrendMax Futures. "I think the market sees that this recession is nowhere near over."
US dollar down and commodity up? Factors to be considered
1) quantitative easing
- passed a sweeping stimulus bill, the Treasury orchestrated a private-public plan to scrub off up to $1 trillion in toxic assets from bank books, and the Federal Reserve pulled no punches with its efforts to drive short-term borrowing rates to zero and free up bank borrowing with more technical market intervention.
2) Slowing economy reduces demand. So it is not sustainable to have high commodity price.
3) Deleveraging reduce the USD supply and push dollar up.
4) Worries about the depth of the global downturn, then go for safe heaven again.
- passed a sweeping stimulus bill, the Treasury orchestrated a private-public plan to scrub off up to $1 trillion in toxic assets from bank books, and the Federal Reserve pulled no punches with its efforts to drive short-term borrowing rates to zero and free up bank borrowing with more technical market intervention.
2) Slowing economy reduces demand. So it is not sustainable to have high commodity price.
3) Deleveraging reduce the USD supply and push dollar up.
4) Worries about the depth of the global downturn, then go for safe heaven again.
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