调查显示，主权财富基金目前可能有100-200亿美元投资于商品和石油。尽管以多数标准衡量这一持有量都低于基准，但其可能急速升至数千亿美元。
这其中最典型的是新加坡主权财富基金———淡马锡控股公司。2月6日，新加坡淡马锡控股公司宣布新掌门人，由此前曾在矿业巨头必和必拓公司(BHP Billiton)任职九年的查尔斯·顾之博出任。
目前，金融资产已占到淡马锡公司总资产的40%左右，市场预计，随着查尔斯·顾之博的上任，商品领域和石油投资比重将会大大上升。
全球最大的黄金ETF———SPDR Gold Trust的统计数据显示，截至2月24日其持有的黄金总量已达到创纪录的1028.98吨。
行业估算显示，主权财富基金目前仅有少量对商品和石油的风险敞口，很可能在其近4万亿美元资产中所占比例不到0.5%。但市场预计若有迹象显示经济复苏或油价逆转跌势，就会促使这些基金将更多资金配置到石油等替代性资产中。
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Soybeams down down down
Reasons
1. Strong US dollar
2. Slowing economic -> reduce in demand
3. Oil is low -> no more ethonal story.
4. As farmers are difficult to get loan, and growing corn is more expensive than soybeams, more farmers is going to grow soybeams then corn.
据分析机构Informa预估，2009年美国大豆种植面积为 8146万英亩，较2008年的7588万英亩上升7.35%；另一方面，大豆市场食品需求相对刚性，但工业需求受经济影响较大。原油价格下跌导致工业需求放缓，影响世界大豆需求，也对价格走势不利。
1. Strong US dollar
2. Slowing economic -> reduce in demand
3. Oil is low -> no more ethonal story.
4. As farmers are difficult to get loan, and growing corn is more expensive than soybeams, more farmers is going to grow soybeams then corn.
据分析机构Informa预估，2009年美国大豆种植面积为 8146万英亩，较2008年的7588万英亩上升7.35%；另一方面，大豆市场食品需求相对刚性，但工业需求受经济影响较大。原油价格下跌导致工业需求放缓，影响世界大豆需求，也对价格走势不利。
Friday, March 7, 2008
Oil ends down, eases off record above $106 a barrel
7 March 2008
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil ended slightly lower on Friday, falling from record highs hit earlier when buying by speculators hedging against the weaker dollar and inflation sent prices above $106 a barrel.
U.S. oil settled down 32 cents at $105.15 a barrel, trimming gains after hitting an all-time high of $106.54 earlier in the trading session. London Brent crude settled 23 cents lower at $102.38 a barrel.
"We rose earlier on the dollar play and expectations that the Fed may have to lower rates," said Rob Kurzatkowski, a futures analyst with optionsXpress.
"This has lately been an inflation and currency play."
A government report showing a second straight month of contractions in U.S. payrolls spurred talk the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates again, weakening the dollar early in the day. The greenback later rebounded, helping to ease oil off earlier highs.
The steady decline in the U.S. dollar has helped push commodity prices higher, while a sharp drop in U.S. crude stocks and OPEC's decision on Wednesday not to increase output also boosted oil prices.
While U.S. crude inventories had been building in recent weeks and U.S. gasoline stocks were at 14-year highs, a U.S. government report showed crude stocks fell by 3.1 million barrels last week, against forecasts for an increase.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps more than a third of the world's oil, has long argued the current high prices do not reflect market fundamentals and are being driven by speculation.
Influential Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi reiterated that view in remarks published on Friday, saying speculation was behind triple-digit oil and made it impossible for any organization to control price movements.
"Today there is no link between oil (market) fundamentals and prices," he told Moroccan newspaper Asharq al-Awast.
"The duty of oil exporters is to make sure that fundamentals are healthy," said Naimi. "If these fundamentals were stable and fulfill market needs, then there is no need to raise or decrease production."
OPEC will next meet in September, although ministers could confer informally at a conference between consumers and producers in Rome April 20-22.
"Leaving things so open-ended gives me and others a clear impression that the cartel is prepared to let prices run away for the time being. Perhaps they feel the weakness in the dollar would offset any rise in price," said Rob Laughlin at MF Global.
Tensions between OPEC member Venezuela, a top oil exporter to the United States, and neighbor Colombia, also have underpinned oil prices.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil ended slightly lower on Friday, falling from record highs hit earlier when buying by speculators hedging against the weaker dollar and inflation sent prices above $106 a barrel.
U.S. oil settled down 32 cents at $105.15 a barrel, trimming gains after hitting an all-time high of $106.54 earlier in the trading session. London Brent crude settled 23 cents lower at $102.38 a barrel.
"We rose earlier on the dollar play and expectations that the Fed may have to lower rates," said Rob Kurzatkowski, a futures analyst with optionsXpress.
"This has lately been an inflation and currency play."
A government report showing a second straight month of contractions in U.S. payrolls spurred talk the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates again, weakening the dollar early in the day. The greenback later rebounded, helping to ease oil off earlier highs.
The steady decline in the U.S. dollar has helped push commodity prices higher, while a sharp drop in U.S. crude stocks and OPEC's decision on Wednesday not to increase output also boosted oil prices.
While U.S. crude inventories had been building in recent weeks and U.S. gasoline stocks were at 14-year highs, a U.S. government report showed crude stocks fell by 3.1 million barrels last week, against forecasts for an increase.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps more than a third of the world's oil, has long argued the current high prices do not reflect market fundamentals and are being driven by speculation.
Influential Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi reiterated that view in remarks published on Friday, saying speculation was behind triple-digit oil and made it impossible for any organization to control price movements.
"Today there is no link between oil (market) fundamentals and prices," he told Moroccan newspaper Asharq al-Awast.
"The duty of oil exporters is to make sure that fundamentals are healthy," said Naimi. "If these fundamentals were stable and fulfill market needs, then there is no need to raise or decrease production."
OPEC will next meet in September, although ministers could confer informally at a conference between consumers and producers in Rome April 20-22.
"Leaving things so open-ended gives me and others a clear impression that the cartel is prepared to let prices run away for the time being. Perhaps they feel the weakness in the dollar would offset any rise in price," said Rob Laughlin at MF Global.
Tensions between OPEC member Venezuela, a top oil exporter to the United States, and neighbor Colombia, also have underpinned oil prices.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Commodity Quote and Chart Websites
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/
http://futuresource.quote.com/quotes/index.jsp
http://www.cbot.com
http://www.prophet.net/quotes/futureswatch.jsp
http://www.barchart.com
http://futuresource.quote.com/quotes/index.jsp
http://www.cbot.com
http://www.prophet.net/quotes/futureswatch.jsp
http://www.barchart.com
Players Involved in Commodities Trading
There are three different types of players in the commodity markets:
Commercials: The entities involved in the production, processing or merchandising of a commodity. For example, both the corn farmer and Kellogg’s from the example above are commercials. Commercials account for most of the trading in commodity markets.
Large Speculators: A group of investors that pool their money together to reduce risk and increase gain. Like mutual funds in the stock market, large speculators have money managers that make investment decisions for the investors as a whole.
Small Speculators: Individual commodity traders who trade on their own accounts or through a commodity broker. Both small and large speculators are known for their ability to shake up the commodities market.
Commercials: The entities involved in the production, processing or merchandising of a commodity. For example, both the corn farmer and Kellogg’s from the example above are commercials. Commercials account for most of the trading in commodity markets.
Large Speculators: A group of investors that pool their money together to reduce risk and increase gain. Like mutual funds in the stock market, large speculators have money managers that make investment decisions for the investors as a whole.
Small Speculators: Individual commodity traders who trade on their own accounts or through a commodity broker. Both small and large speculators are known for their ability to shake up the commodities market.
How do Futures Work?
Futures are standardized contracts among buyers and sellers of commodities that specify the amount of a commodity, grade / quality and delivery location. Commodity trading with futures contracts takes place at a futures exchange and, like the stock market, is entirely anonymous.
For example: the buyer might be an end-user like Kellogg’s. They need to buy corn to make cereal. The seller would most likely be a farmer, who needs to sell his corn crop. They create a contract of December Corn futures at the current market price. A contract of corn at the CBOT consists of 5,000 bushels. Therefore, the farmer would have to deliver 5,000 bushels of corn to Kellogg’s in December at a designated location.
For example: the buyer might be an end-user like Kellogg’s. They need to buy corn to make cereal. The seller would most likely be a farmer, who needs to sell his corn crop. They create a contract of December Corn futures at the current market price. A contract of corn at the CBOT consists of 5,000 bushels. Therefore, the farmer would have to deliver 5,000 bushels of corn to Kellogg’s in December at a designated location.
What are Commodities?
The terms “commodities” and “futures” are often used to describe commodity trading or futures trading. You can think of them as generic terms to describe the markets. It is similar to the way “stocks” and “equities” are used when investors talk about the stock market. To be more specific, this is what they really mean: Commodities are the actual physical goods like corn, soybeans, gold, crude oil, etc. Futures are contracts of commodities that are traded at a futures exchange like the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Futures contracts have expanded beyond just commodities; now there are futures contracts on financial markets like the S&P 500, t-notes, currencies and many others.
Futures Contract: December 2007 Corn, which is a contract of 5,000 bushels of corn that trades at the Chicago Board of Trade with a contract expiring in December 2007.
Futures Contract: December 2007 Corn, which is a contract of 5,000 bushels of corn that trades at the Chicago Board of Trade with a contract expiring in December 2007.
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