CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Mar 27, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) ----The collapse in oil prices could end up cutting the growth in future oil supply in half from what would have been anticipated during the high price period, according to a new study from Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA: undefined, undefined, undefined%), an IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS: 42.05, 0, 0%) company. The Long Aftershock concludes that about 7.6 million barrels per day (mbd) out of total potential future net growth of 14.5 mbd from 2009 to 2014 are "at risk."
"The inventory of potential new oilfield developments, including fields that could be developed and brought online during the next five years, remains adequate to meet likely demand in the medium- to long-term," says CERA Senior Director Peter M. Jackson, an author of the report. "This, however, depends on sufficient and timely investment."
The steep decline in oil prices has, so far, not been matched by an equal decline in the cost of developing new oil fields or in fiscal terms. This means the economics of a significant share of potential future oil supply growth have deteriorated to the point where it risks "being slowed down, postponed, or cancelled altogether. Slower growth in oil production capacity over the next five years could lead to the next period of rising oil prices, but much depends on the recovery of world oil demand - which CERA predicts could fall as much as 2.3 mbd in 2008 and 2009 combined - and the reaction of the oil industry and government policies.
"Investment decisions are rooted in expectations about future value, and while long-term oil price expectations are critical, so are upstream development costs," added Jackson. "The oil price needed to justify investment will decline as the cost base falls, but this readjustment may take time to unfold, and lower costs will not necessarily equate with increasing activity levels."
The potential reduction in capacity represents a potentially powerful and long-lasting aftershock following the oil price collapse that began in 2008. Using proprietary databases from CERA and IHS, the report analyzes how global oil supply could be reshaped by lower oil prices and the credit crisis.
"Seven consecutive years of rising oil prices - unprecedented in the history of the oil industry - have come crashing down, thus burying the notion that the commodity price cycle was a historical relic," the report says. "Instead, old truths have been reaffirmed. Sustained rising oil prices do, eventually, affect demand trends. One-way bets on oil prices eventually go awry."
The report adds that the "commodity price cycle" is affected "by global economy, geopolitics, and technology. The question today is, as always, 'When will the next swing in oil price occur?'"
Economic growth and oil demand will be key factors that also affect future supply. After declining in 2008 and 2009, CERA expects oil demand to pick up in 2010. However, "If oil demand does not begin to recover next year, the oil market could face a large surplus of production capacity for the next several years - even if growth in production capacity slows significantly," said James Burkhard, CERA managing director and an author of the report.
CERA's analysis finds that, with the fall in oil prices, the pace at which new supply will grow and come onstream is already slowing. Given the global economic climate, short-term corporate cash flow problems will lead to project deferrals throughout the global industry, and financial pressures could spark a possible wave of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. Oil-exploring countries face a large reduction in revenue compared with 2008 as well, and current indications are that as many as 35 new projects in OPEC countries will be delayed significantly.
The Long Aftershock concludes that if all "at risk" supply fails to materialize, world oil production capacity just five years from now could be 101.4 mbd, 7.6 mbd below the pre-collapse CERA projection of 109 mbd for 2014. The report identifies the most likely areas for postponements as new heavy oil and deep water projects and countries with difficult fiscal regimes, as well as a reduction in the investment in new biofuel, gas-to-liquid and coal-to-liquid projects, and high cost discretionary "rank wildcat exploration." Although it will take time for these changes to have an impact on total global oil supply, that impact could prove to be significant.
CERA Chairman and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power Daniel Yergin added, "Future demand is particularly uncertain today because of the impact of high prices on consumers, the depth of the recession, the shifts in the automobile industry, and the introduction of new energy and climate change policies."
But, the report says, if demand growth is eventually far greater than expected, especially in emerging markets, and current, prolonged low oil prices persist and productive capacity growth stalls even more than expected, a new period of tight supply and strongly rising oil prices could mark the next turn in the oil cycle.
To learn more about The Long Aftershock, please visit www.cera.com or email info@cera.com.
CERA is an IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS: 42.05, 0, 0%) company.
About CERA (www.cera.com)
Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA: undefined, undefined, undefined%), an IHS company, is a leading advisor to energy companies, consumers, financial institutions, technology providers, and governments. CERA (www.cera.com) delivers strategic knowledge and independent analysis on energy markets, geopolitics, industry trends, and strategy. CERA is based in Cambridge, Mass., and has offices in Bangkok, Beijing, Calgary, Dubai, Johannesburg, Mexico City, Moscow, Mumbai, Oslo, Paris, Rio de Janeiro, San Francisco, Tokyo, and Washington, DC.
About IHS (www.ihs.com)
IHS (NYSE: IHS: 42.05, 0, 0%) is a leading global source of critical information and insight, dedicated to providing the most complete and trusted data and expertise. IHS product and service solutions span four areas of information that encompass the most important concerns facing global business today: Energy, Product Lifecycle, Security, and Environment. It serves customers ranging from governments and multinational companies to smaller companies and technical professionals in more than 180 countries. IHS is celebrating its 50th anniversary in 2009 and employs approximately 3,800 people in 20 countries.
IHS is a registered trademark of IHS Inc. CERA is a registered trademark of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. Copyright (C: 2.35, n.a., n.a.%)2009 IHS Inc. All rights reserved.
SOURCE: IHS Inc.
IHS
David Pendery, 303-397-2468
david.pendery@ihs.com
or
IHS Press Desk, 303-305-8021
press@ihs.com
Copyright Business Wire 2009
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Monday, March 30, 2009
Oil
- The collapse in oil prices could end up cutting the growth in future oil supply in half from what would have been anticipated during the high price period, according to a new study from Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA: undefined, undefined, undefined%), an IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS: 42.05, 0, 0%) company.
- The Long Aftershock concludes that about 7.6 million barrels per day (mbd) out of total potential future net growth of 14.5 mbd from 2009 to 2014 are "at risk."
- There is little, if any, fundamental data that justifies the price increases over the last few weeks," said James Williams, an economist at energy research firm WTRG Economics On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for May delivery closed below $50 for the first time since March 18.
"Oil is trading lower today due to the shocking news out of the auto industry and the implications for demand if GM or Chrysler fall within the next 60 days," said Zachary Oxman of TrendMax Futures. "I think the market sees that this recession is nowhere near over."
- The Long Aftershock concludes that about 7.6 million barrels per day (mbd) out of total potential future net growth of 14.5 mbd from 2009 to 2014 are "at risk."
- There is little, if any, fundamental data that justifies the price increases over the last few weeks," said James Williams, an economist at energy research firm WTRG Economics On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for May delivery closed below $50 for the first time since March 18.
"Oil is trading lower today due to the shocking news out of the auto industry and the implications for demand if GM or Chrysler fall within the next 60 days," said Zachary Oxman of TrendMax Futures. "I think the market sees that this recession is nowhere near over."
US dollar down and commodity up? Factors to be considered
1) quantitative easing
- passed a sweeping stimulus bill, the Treasury orchestrated a private-public plan to scrub off up to $1 trillion in toxic assets from bank books, and the Federal Reserve pulled no punches with its efforts to drive short-term borrowing rates to zero and free up bank borrowing with more technical market intervention.
2) Slowing economy reduces demand. So it is not sustainable to have high commodity price.
3) Deleveraging reduce the USD supply and push dollar up.
4) Worries about the depth of the global downturn, then go for safe heaven again.
- passed a sweeping stimulus bill, the Treasury orchestrated a private-public plan to scrub off up to $1 trillion in toxic assets from bank books, and the Federal Reserve pulled no punches with its efforts to drive short-term borrowing rates to zero and free up bank borrowing with more technical market intervention.
2) Slowing economy reduces demand. So it is not sustainable to have high commodity price.
3) Deleveraging reduce the USD supply and push dollar up.
4) Worries about the depth of the global downturn, then go for safe heaven again.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
US curreny crisis
美元在危机恢复后的贬值不可避免
伊藤隆敏：尽管自美国金融危机以来，美元汇率一直呈现出强势，但美国近来持续升值是一种暂时现象，金融危机结束后，美元必将下跌。原因在于，在金融危机期间，美国的公司和金融机构在全球出售资产，以帮助总部克服流动性不足困难。这些大量资金是以外币计价，若要回流美国，必须兑换成美元。这意味着美元需求增加，外币供给增加，从而美元升值。当美国金融体系恢复稳定后，美国公司和金融机构的力量将得到增强，这种形式资本流入将会停止。所以，美元将会变弱、贬值。
美元体系的转折点
水野和夫：从历史视角来看，目前美国金融市场困难状况加剧，已从流动性短缺发展为资本短缺，目前美国借款人坏账规模将达1.3万亿美元，当银行减记这些巨额不良资产时，美国金融系统整体上将陷入资不抵债状态。根据日本经验，美国经济最困难时期可能是2009~2010年。当美国房屋价格下跌至40%时，银行系统不良贷款将上升至2.2万亿美元。因此，美国经济将挣扎3~4年时间，直至银行等金融机构将不良资产处理完毕。
以前，美国的银行可寻求中东国家主权财富基金的资金，以弥补资本损失，但现在已经难以再得到类似支持。向私人银行部门注入公共资金是唯一选择。在美国家庭负债累累情形下，通过提高税率来获取所需资金显然不是一个可行选择，美国政府只能通过发行更多债券来筹集资金。
而有能力购买这些债券只能是外国投资者。2004年以来，美国新债年均发行量达4000亿美元，外国购买比重达94%。
但是，美国政府债券是以美国政府所征收税收为担保的，在美国家庭陷入长期债务危机状况下，新国债发行显然不能获得足够的偿还保证。美国向银行系统注入公共资金将有可能导致美元危机。为实施注资计划，美国需要寻求其他国家支持或国际联合干预以支持美元。目前七国集团框架下的国际合作显然不够，需要中国和中东石油出口国的参与。
不过，随着对美国政府税收征收能力疑虑的加深，外国政府和投资者继续购买美国债券的前提条件可能是，美国发行非美元计价债券。例如，1978年，美国卡特政府在美元危机时期发行了以欧洲货币计价美国国债(卡特债券)。发行非美元计价债券将使美国更多地暴露于汇率风险之下。
美国金融危机将是美元地位一个历史转折点。二战以来，中东国家支撑了以美元为主导的全球货币体系。但是，中东国家目前面临着输入型通货膨胀和外汇资产贬值等问题，这将可能促进其将货币由钉住美元转为钉住一篮子货币，从而可能导致石油以美元计价机制终结。即使各国合力阻止以美国为中心的战后国际体制崩溃，国际新秩序出现将不可避免。正如美国外交关系协会主席理查德·哈斯所言：“全球化将增强非极化趋势。”在非极化时代，即使有一国扮演了美国现在的角色，也并不意味着现行体制的继续。因此，次贷危机和美元危机预示着“现代社会”的终结。
现行国际货币体系不可持续
小岛明：现行国际货币体系不可持续。首先，现行以美元为主导的货币体系是建立在全球失衡基础上的。二战结束时，美国是唯一贸易顺差国，现在则是最大逆差国。上世纪80年代，美国曾对自身不断累积的经常账户赤字表达关注，并在1985年通过广场协议对美元币值作了深幅下调，但并未能解决贸易失衡问题。此后，美国政府再也没有认真对待贸易失衡问题。因为美国政府知道，它具有通过印刷美元来为经常项目赤字融资的特权，如果继续保持这种特权，就不用担心经常项目赤字问题。
近30年来，每隔10年便发生一次金融危机。例如，1987年“黑色星期一”、1997年亚洲金融(1.8,0.00,0.00%)危机和2007年美国金融危机。这些危机的一个重要背景，就是不断恶化的全球失衡。由于美国持续通过向外借款来为其日益膨胀的经常账户赤字融资，其净外债在2007年底已达3.2万亿美元，占GDP的23%。出于对不断攀升美国资产的保值能力忧虑，贷款国开始降低美元资产在其外汇储备中的比重。因此，美元汇率大幅度调整，或者美元崩溃，将在任何时候都有可能发生。这就是全球失衡的危险之处。
其次，美元过剩也是全球失衡引发的一个重要问题。大量投机性过剩美元，造成金融市场和外汇市场的不稳定。颇具讽刺意味的是，美国金融机构在这场金融危机中竟然拿不出美元资产来。美国政府应认识到全球失衡问题来源于国内结构失衡，并拿出建设性解决办法。
现行国际货币体系已经过时了。因为美国巨额经常项目赤字使得这一体系不可持续。美元将从世界关键货币地位上逐渐衰落，美国货币特权将逐步削弱。目前，包括欧元在内的任何一种单一货币均不能取代美元地位，国际货币体系将从以单一货币为主导向多元货币为基础过渡。
伊藤隆敏：尽管自美国金融危机以来，美元汇率一直呈现出强势，但美国近来持续升值是一种暂时现象，金融危机结束后，美元必将下跌。原因在于，在金融危机期间，美国的公司和金融机构在全球出售资产，以帮助总部克服流动性不足困难。这些大量资金是以外币计价，若要回流美国，必须兑换成美元。这意味着美元需求增加，外币供给增加，从而美元升值。当美国金融体系恢复稳定后，美国公司和金融机构的力量将得到增强，这种形式资本流入将会停止。所以，美元将会变弱、贬值。
美元体系的转折点
水野和夫：从历史视角来看，目前美国金融市场困难状况加剧，已从流动性短缺发展为资本短缺，目前美国借款人坏账规模将达1.3万亿美元，当银行减记这些巨额不良资产时，美国金融系统整体上将陷入资不抵债状态。根据日本经验，美国经济最困难时期可能是2009~2010年。当美国房屋价格下跌至40%时，银行系统不良贷款将上升至2.2万亿美元。因此，美国经济将挣扎3~4年时间，直至银行等金融机构将不良资产处理完毕。
以前，美国的银行可寻求中东国家主权财富基金的资金，以弥补资本损失，但现在已经难以再得到类似支持。向私人银行部门注入公共资金是唯一选择。在美国家庭负债累累情形下，通过提高税率来获取所需资金显然不是一个可行选择，美国政府只能通过发行更多债券来筹集资金。
而有能力购买这些债券只能是外国投资者。2004年以来，美国新债年均发行量达4000亿美元，外国购买比重达94%。
但是，美国政府债券是以美国政府所征收税收为担保的，在美国家庭陷入长期债务危机状况下，新国债发行显然不能获得足够的偿还保证。美国向银行系统注入公共资金将有可能导致美元危机。为实施注资计划，美国需要寻求其他国家支持或国际联合干预以支持美元。目前七国集团框架下的国际合作显然不够，需要中国和中东石油出口国的参与。
不过，随着对美国政府税收征收能力疑虑的加深，外国政府和投资者继续购买美国债券的前提条件可能是，美国发行非美元计价债券。例如，1978年，美国卡特政府在美元危机时期发行了以欧洲货币计价美国国债(卡特债券)。发行非美元计价债券将使美国更多地暴露于汇率风险之下。
美国金融危机将是美元地位一个历史转折点。二战以来，中东国家支撑了以美元为主导的全球货币体系。但是，中东国家目前面临着输入型通货膨胀和外汇资产贬值等问题，这将可能促进其将货币由钉住美元转为钉住一篮子货币，从而可能导致石油以美元计价机制终结。即使各国合力阻止以美国为中心的战后国际体制崩溃，国际新秩序出现将不可避免。正如美国外交关系协会主席理查德·哈斯所言：“全球化将增强非极化趋势。”在非极化时代，即使有一国扮演了美国现在的角色，也并不意味着现行体制的继续。因此，次贷危机和美元危机预示着“现代社会”的终结。
现行国际货币体系不可持续
小岛明：现行国际货币体系不可持续。首先，现行以美元为主导的货币体系是建立在全球失衡基础上的。二战结束时，美国是唯一贸易顺差国，现在则是最大逆差国。上世纪80年代，美国曾对自身不断累积的经常账户赤字表达关注，并在1985年通过广场协议对美元币值作了深幅下调，但并未能解决贸易失衡问题。此后，美国政府再也没有认真对待贸易失衡问题。因为美国政府知道，它具有通过印刷美元来为经常项目赤字融资的特权，如果继续保持这种特权，就不用担心经常项目赤字问题。
近30年来，每隔10年便发生一次金融危机。例如，1987年“黑色星期一”、1997年亚洲金融(1.8,0.00,0.00%)危机和2007年美国金融危机。这些危机的一个重要背景，就是不断恶化的全球失衡。由于美国持续通过向外借款来为其日益膨胀的经常账户赤字融资，其净外债在2007年底已达3.2万亿美元，占GDP的23%。出于对不断攀升美国资产的保值能力忧虑，贷款国开始降低美元资产在其外汇储备中的比重。因此，美元汇率大幅度调整，或者美元崩溃，将在任何时候都有可能发生。这就是全球失衡的危险之处。
其次，美元过剩也是全球失衡引发的一个重要问题。大量投机性过剩美元，造成金融市场和外汇市场的不稳定。颇具讽刺意味的是，美国金融机构在这场金融危机中竟然拿不出美元资产来。美国政府应认识到全球失衡问题来源于国内结构失衡，并拿出建设性解决办法。
现行国际货币体系已经过时了。因为美国巨额经常项目赤字使得这一体系不可持续。美元将从世界关键货币地位上逐渐衰落，美国货币特权将逐步削弱。目前，包括欧元在内的任何一种单一货币均不能取代美元地位，国际货币体系将从以单一货币为主导向多元货币为基础过渡。
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Rogers: China to overcome recession first
China's stimulus spending will help its economy overcome the global recession sooner than the US and other countries, investor Jim Rogers said.
China's reserves allow the government to spend on projects that will make the nation more efficient and competitive as the global economy recovers, said Rogers, the author of "A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market." Signs China is taking steps to liberalize its currency will also benefit the country, he added.
"I certainly expect China to come out of it sooner than the US," Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said in an interview. "They seem to be spending the money on the right things. China is doing a far better job than the others."
Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated last week the government's pledge to "significantly increase" investment in 2009 to help counter the slowest growth in seven years. He didn't specify new stimulus spending in addition to a 4 trillion yuan plan announced in November.
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BUSINESSbites
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.39 percent to 2,118.75 yesterday. The measure has gained 18 percent this year, the world's best performer among 91 benchmark stock gauges.
The People's Bank of China cut interest rates five times in the final four months of last year, including the biggest single reduction since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. The government is targeting growth of 8 percent in 2009, after the economy slowed to a 6.8 percent gain in the fourth quarter.
China will allow trade settlement in yuan with Hong Kong soon, central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at a briefing in Beijing on March 6. President Li Lihui of Bank of China Ltd, the nation's largest foreign-exchange lender, said yesterday in Beijing the bank is already conducting trial international yuan settlements in Shanghai and Hong Kong.
"I'm glad to see they're taking yet another step toward convertibility," said Rogers, who in April 2006 accurately predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce. He said he owns Japanese yen as he expects more of the money to "come home." Rogers added he plans to sell his remaining US dollar holdings later this year because the world's largest economy isn't a "safe haven" for investors.
"I plan later this year to get out of the rest of my US dollars," he said. "It's had an artificial rally too but it's a terribly flawed currency. The US is printing money as fast as it can and that's always throughout history led to currency problems down the road."
Rogers on June 30 advised investors to avoid the dollar "at all costs" as the US economy slows. He reiterated the stand yesterday and said it's difficult to make money on the dollar unless the investor is actively trading the currency.
Investors are continuing to cover their earlier short sales on the dollar, helping to sustain the currency, he added. So- called short sellers borrow securities and sell them on hopes of capturing a profit by replacing them after prices fall.
Rogers added he remains bullish on agriculture and that commodities are "the only area of the world economy I know which is benefiting." He said he owns "some" gold and silver, and regards silver as "cheaper".
Water, power and other infrastructure companies' shares are favored because their earnings are less vulnerable during the global slowdown, Rogers said.
"We're having a shift to people who produce real goods," Rogers said. "Those are the people who are going to be in charge. The farmers are going to have the Lamborghinis in the future, not the brokers on Wall Street."
China's reserves allow the government to spend on projects that will make the nation more efficient and competitive as the global economy recovers, said Rogers, the author of "A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market." Signs China is taking steps to liberalize its currency will also benefit the country, he added.
"I certainly expect China to come out of it sooner than the US," Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said in an interview. "They seem to be spending the money on the right things. China is doing a far better job than the others."
Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated last week the government's pledge to "significantly increase" investment in 2009 to help counter the slowest growth in seven years. He didn't specify new stimulus spending in addition to a 4 trillion yuan plan announced in November.
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Today in Business
Consumer prices fall in February
'No risk of deflation, loans to top 5b yuan in 2009'
BUSINESSbites
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.39 percent to 2,118.75 yesterday. The measure has gained 18 percent this year, the world's best performer among 91 benchmark stock gauges.
The People's Bank of China cut interest rates five times in the final four months of last year, including the biggest single reduction since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. The government is targeting growth of 8 percent in 2009, after the economy slowed to a 6.8 percent gain in the fourth quarter.
China will allow trade settlement in yuan with Hong Kong soon, central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at a briefing in Beijing on March 6. President Li Lihui of Bank of China Ltd, the nation's largest foreign-exchange lender, said yesterday in Beijing the bank is already conducting trial international yuan settlements in Shanghai and Hong Kong.
"I'm glad to see they're taking yet another step toward convertibility," said Rogers, who in April 2006 accurately predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce. He said he owns Japanese yen as he expects more of the money to "come home." Rogers added he plans to sell his remaining US dollar holdings later this year because the world's largest economy isn't a "safe haven" for investors.
"I plan later this year to get out of the rest of my US dollars," he said. "It's had an artificial rally too but it's a terribly flawed currency. The US is printing money as fast as it can and that's always throughout history led to currency problems down the road."
Rogers on June 30 advised investors to avoid the dollar "at all costs" as the US economy slows. He reiterated the stand yesterday and said it's difficult to make money on the dollar unless the investor is actively trading the currency.
Investors are continuing to cover their earlier short sales on the dollar, helping to sustain the currency, he added. So- called short sellers borrow securities and sell them on hopes of capturing a profit by replacing them after prices fall.
Rogers added he remains bullish on agriculture and that commodities are "the only area of the world economy I know which is benefiting." He said he owns "some" gold and silver, and regards silver as "cheaper".
Water, power and other infrastructure companies' shares are favored because their earnings are less vulnerable during the global slowdown, Rogers said.
"We're having a shift to people who produce real goods," Rogers said. "Those are the people who are going to be in charge. The farmers are going to have the Lamborghinis in the future, not the brokers on Wall Street."
五 美元兑加元(1.2876,-0.0115,-0.89%)回踩后继续上扬
澳元上周小幅振荡，整体仍延续下行趋势，去年12月开始的下降压力线依然有效，预计澳元很快会测试0.6240，破将进一步下探0.60关口。日图KD指标于中轨附近死叉并持续向下，支持汇价继续走低，只有突破0.6520，澳元才有反弹机会出现。
支撑位：0.6240、0.6070、0.6000
阻力位：0.6520、0.6850、0.7000
美元兑加元在向上突破前期大型整理三角形后，上周出现回踩动作，下探1.27支撑后再度走高，仿佛教科书般的经典走势，当前美元兑加元上行趋势良好，日图KD指标持续拉升，支持汇价进一步上行，预计很快将考验1.30关口的阻力，一旦突破，将打开广阔的上行空间，中期目标甚至可看1.40，若突破失败，预计将引发高位振荡。
支撑位：1.2710、1.2470、1.2270
阻力位：1.3000、1.3220、1.3370
四 美元兑日元(98.43,-0.3900,-0.39%)止步100关口
上周日元基本面重要消息不多，其中日本08年4季度资本支出年比下降18.1%，为连续第7个季度下降，表明企业投资意愿低迷，未来经济下滑的局面仍将继续。
美元兑日元上周涨势止步于100关口，这与美债收益率未能进一步上行有关，从两者走势观察，日元与美债收益率的关系依然存在，但较前期有所弱化。
目前美元兑日元日图KD指标出现高位死叉迹象，不支持汇价继续上行，若本周美债收益率走低，则料将引发美元兑日元向下修正，有跌至94.60一线寻求支撑的可能，但若美债收益率进一步上扬，则美元兑日元有望击破100关口。
支撑位：96.50、95.50、94.60
阻力位：99.70、100.00、101.20
三 欧央行降息聊胜于无，英央行迈向定量宽松
欧洲央行上周宣布下调利率50个BP至1.5%，为欧洲央行设立以来的最低水平，正如我们此前预期的那样，迫于经济滑坡的压力，特里谢不得不放弃看起来不合时宜的强硬立场。虽然欧央行已经降息，但未必会形成真正的利好，因为降息节奏太慢，已远远落后于其他央行，只能说是聊胜于无。
特里谢还表示，欧洲央行官员大幅下调2009和2010年CPI和GDP预期，预计09年GDP增长率为-3.2%至-2.2%，2010年GDP增长率为-0.7%至+0.7%。而特里谢还暗示会进一步减息，目前来看，未来欧元利率可能会降至1%甚至更低。
在基本面方面，欧元区继续下滑，意大利08年GDP收缩1%，为1975年以来最严重的衰退；法国政府称该国09年公共赤字占GDP比重将升至5.6%，而该国08年4季度失业率激增，由7.6%跳升至8.2%。
从技术图表观察，欧元上周走势振荡，略有反弹，整体仍延续下行趋势，但值得注意的是，上周五欧元突破了去年12月以来的天图下降压力线，日图KD指标低位出现金叉迹象，现实似乎有进一步反弹的需求。
不过目前无法确认欧元对该压力线突破的有效性，若回踩1.2560后继续上扬，则有机会展开技术性反弹，目标可看1.29附近，若回踩后继续下跌，则可下看1.23-24区间。
支撑位：1.2560、1.2400、1.2300
阻力位：1.2800、1.2970、1.3090
这是一个值得纪念的时刻，英国央行在将利率下调至0.5%后，还表示将在未来三个月购买至多750亿英镑的英国国债，英国财政部也已经批准英国央行购买高达1500亿英镑的资产以增加货币供应量，因此，英国成为第一个实施定量宽松货币政策的国家。
英国央行的风格颇为类似于美联储，大步快跑，降息干脆彻底，这与欧洲央行慢吞吞的样子形成鲜明对比。这样一来，已经有美联储、日本央行、英国央行三家大型央行开始实施定量宽松的货币政策，在这类榜样的示范之下，预计会有更多的央行考虑超宽松的政策。
大干快上固然好，但我们对危机结束后的世界充满了担忧，由于货币乘数下降的关系，目前各央行向市场注入的天量流动性，都隐藏在流动性紧缩的假象之下，一旦市场回暖，流动性将会汹涌而出，未来全球的通胀压力将会超出预期。
从技术图表观察，英镑上周走势疲软，反弹受制于去年12月开始的下降压力线，日图KD指标死叉扩大并向下延伸，不支持英镑反弹。预计英镑近期仍会维持下行压力，若跌破1.4，则有跌向1.35前期低点的风险。
支撑位：1.3930、1.3830、1.3480
阻力位：1.4280、1.4650、1.4990
二 央行并未关闭调整汇率政策的大门
上周，人民币兑美元基本保持稳定，人民币中间价开于6.8389，询价系统收于6.8398，下跌9点。
备受关注的两会终于隆重开幕，但投资者并未从会议上得到更多线索，温家宝总理在政府工作报告中，一如既往的重申了对人民币汇率政策的表述，并无新鲜提法。
不过，央行行长周小川答记者问的内容还是耐人寻味，他并未明确承诺人民币不贬值，只表示政府工作报告已经有了“明确说法”，“不需要再有一个什么新的提法”，不过他又表示，已经准备了很多预案，将会根据形势的不同而采取不同的预案。
我们认为，人民币汇率短期内维持稳定是央行的既定政策之一，但央行并未排除考虑调整政策，调整也是预案之一。实际上，近期亚洲许多货币均出现大幅贬值，使得中国出口在遭受海外市场需求萎缩打击的同时，又不得不面对竞争对手价格上的压力。
上周公布的中国2月采购经理人指数继续改善，从1月的45.3升至49.0，但仍低于荣枯分水岭50，这表明制造业仍处于萎缩状态，而非复苏。
招商银行：美国新政府大发国债未必会削弱美元
一 美国新政府大发国债未必会削弱美元
上一周美元指数继续维持强势，期间创出了3年新高89.62。避险早已成为外汇市场的主流趋势，尽管这半年多来，投资者逐渐对避险感到厌倦，但市场却表现出对避险惊人的需求，金融去杠杆化、去负债化持续进行，美国通用汽车、信用卡、东欧银行业危机等“不定时炸弹”随时可能爆炸，令美元获得源源不断的支撑。
从中长期来讲，尽管奥巴马政府大力发债从理论上会削弱美元走势，但事实未必真的会如此。我们通过历史数据的研究发现，美国未偿还国债总额占实际GDP比重这一指标，从70年代末的15%左右，持续攀升至2008年的93%，但期间美元指数经历了两轮大幅升值和贬值周期，整体呈现宽幅区间波动，而同期日本的这一指标却高达122%，也未见日元崩溃。因此我们认为，未来即使美国发行天量国债，也不大可能会令美元衰落。而目前向金融市场大量注入流动性的，不止美国一家，欧洲、日本乃至中国等新兴市场，都在大量向金融市场释放流动性(包括大幅增发国债)，这将会在很大程度上抵消美国单方面“注水”的效果。预计未来半年到一年，美元指数突破90升向100的可能性非常大。
从近期公布的数据来看，美国的经济还在持续恶化，就业继续萎缩，需求继续下滑。美国2月非农就业人数下降65.1万人，符合市场预期，但前两个月的非农人数大幅下修，这样，美国就业数字已创下1949年以来最差水平，过去3个月已有200万人失业，失业率从7.6%大幅跳升至8.1%，创1983年12月以来的最高水平。
与此相对应的，美国人对储蓄的兴趣不减，1月个人消费虽然上升0.6%，但个人储蓄占个人可支配收入的比例为5.0%，创1995年3月以来的最高水平，这意味着美国人继续勒紧裤腰带，新兴市场的出口形势将会持续恶化。
其他数据方面，美国2月ISM制造业景气指数为35.8，略有好转；2月ISM非制造业景气指数为41.6，低于1月份的42.9；1月成屋签约销售指数环比下降7.7%，同比下降6.4%，为历史最低水平；1月工厂订单下降1.9%，为连续第六个月下滑，创下历史连续下降维持时间最长纪录。
从技术图表观察，美元指数上周整体维持涨势，周二创出3年新高89.62后冲高回落。在日线图上，自去年12月开始的上升趋势线依然保持完好，当前位于87.60，在此价格之上，美元指数可持续看涨，预计会进一步测试90关口，突破后中期目标甚至可上看100。但若跌破该支撑，则美指可能展开阶段技术性修正。
支撑位：87.60、86.60、85.70
阻力位：89.00、90.00、90.60
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
主权财富基金流向大宗商品和能源市场
调查显示，主权财富基金目前可能有100-200亿美元投资于商品和石油。尽管以多数标准衡量这一持有量都低于基准，但其可能急速升至数千亿美元。
这其中最典型的是新加坡主权财富基金———淡马锡控股公司。2月6日，新加坡淡马锡控股公司宣布新掌门人，由此前曾在矿业巨头必和必拓公司(BHP Billiton)任职九年的查尔斯·顾之博出任。
目前，金融资产已占到淡马锡公司总资产的40%左右，市场预计，随着查尔斯·顾之博的上任，商品领域和石油投资比重将会大大上升。
全球最大的黄金ETF———SPDR Gold Trust的统计数据显示，截至2月24日其持有的黄金总量已达到创纪录的1028.98吨。
行业估算显示，主权财富基金目前仅有少量对商品和石油的风险敞口，很可能在其近4万亿美元资产中所占比例不到0.5%。但市场预计若有迹象显示经济复苏或油价逆转跌势，就会促使这些基金将更多资金配置到石油等替代性资产中。
这其中最典型的是新加坡主权财富基金———淡马锡控股公司。2月6日，新加坡淡马锡控股公司宣布新掌门人，由此前曾在矿业巨头必和必拓公司(BHP Billiton)任职九年的查尔斯·顾之博出任。
目前，金融资产已占到淡马锡公司总资产的40%左右，市场预计，随着查尔斯·顾之博的上任，商品领域和石油投资比重将会大大上升。
全球最大的黄金ETF———SPDR Gold Trust的统计数据显示，截至2月24日其持有的黄金总量已达到创纪录的1028.98吨。
行业估算显示，主权财富基金目前仅有少量对商品和石油的风险敞口，很可能在其近4万亿美元资产中所占比例不到0.5%。但市场预计若有迹象显示经济复苏或油价逆转跌势，就会促使这些基金将更多资金配置到石油等替代性资产中。
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Soybeams down down down
Reasons
1. Strong US dollar
2. Slowing economic -> reduce in demand
3. Oil is low -> no more ethonal story.
4. As farmers are difficult to get loan, and growing corn is more expensive than soybeams, more farmers is going to grow soybeams then corn.
据分析机构Informa预估，2009年美国大豆种植面积为 8146万英亩，较2008年的7588万英亩上升7.35%；另一方面，大豆市场食品需求相对刚性，但工业需求受经济影响较大。原油价格下跌导致工业需求放缓，影响世界大豆需求，也对价格走势不利。
1. Strong US dollar
2. Slowing economic -> reduce in demand
3. Oil is low -> no more ethonal story.
4. As farmers are difficult to get loan, and growing corn is more expensive than soybeams, more farmers is going to grow soybeams then corn.
据分析机构Informa预估，2009年美国大豆种植面积为 8146万英亩，较2008年的7588万英亩上升7.35%；另一方面，大豆市场食品需求相对刚性，但工业需求受经济影响较大。原油价格下跌导致工业需求放缓，影响世界大豆需求，也对价格走势不利。
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